Evolution of Urban Ecosystem Service Value and a Scenario Analysis Based on Land Utilization Changes: A Case Study of Hangzhou, China

Simulating the change in ecosystem service values (ESVs) caused by land use changes metropolitan areas under multiple scenarios is of great significance to ensure regional ecological security and sustainable urban development. This study assessed variations ESV main area Hangzhou, China, from 2000 2020. A total four future for 2030 were created using cellular automata–Markov prediction model ESVs calculated scenarios. The results are as follows: (1) Arable construction most drastic types Hangzhou during period. From 2020, expanded rapidly, with an increase 46,916.82 hm2, while cultivated decreased significantly 38,396.43 hm2. (2) continuously declined high-value predominantly found forest water areas. (3) services simulated natural development, rapid planned development CNY 15.053, 14.525, 16.690, 16.799 billion, respectively. effectively a high ESV. indicated that balancing various essential guarantee Moreover, should be undertaken low forecasting can serve key reference policy makers regarding landscape sustainability City. integrated simulation method proposed this shed light on spatial layout regulation planning.